In the third week of April 2021, rubber continued to fluctuate at a low level, fluctuating between 13,500 and 14,000. However, from the perspective of the trend of the week, rubber was relatively stable this week, except for the decline of 215 yuan/ton in the weekend night trading. The rest of the operation was basically expected, and Friday night closed at 13,520 yuan/ton.
There were still many negative factors on the fundamentals of rubber last week, especially on the upstream raw material end. The recent upstream fundamental news has become the main negative factor. Yunnan, Hainan, and major rubber-producing countries in Southeast Asia are also starting to harvest. The listing of new raw materials means that 13,000 lines are beginning to face certain pressure. And recently there are data showing that the Malaysian Bureau of Statistics announced on Thursday that in February 2021, natural rubber production increased by 9% from 45,735 tons in January to 49,840 tons. On a year-on-year basis, Malaysia's natural rubber production fell 0.1% in February. In February 2021, Malaysia's natural rubber exports were 54632 tons, an increase of 13.5% from 48,125 tons in January.
The operating rate is not very optimistic in the near term. Domestic tire companies' semi-steel tire operating load was 73.61%, down 0.75% from last week. The price difference of synthetic rubber as a natural rubber complement is also widening. Rubber continues to be bearish this week, or the inner portrayal of most investors. Other commodity futures also experienced mixed fluctuations in the past week.
On the news, the domestic data report shows that China's GDP in the first quarter increased by 18.3% year-on-year, an increase of 10.3% over the first quarter of 2019, and an average growth rate of 5.0% in two years. The added value of industrial enterprises above designated size in March increased by 14.1% year-on-year, which was less than the expected 18%. The Bureau of Statistics stated that the national economy showed a sustained and stable recovery in the first quarter. At the same time, it must be noted that the global epidemic is still spreading, the international environment is complex, and the international environment is highly uncertain and unstable; the foundation for domestic economic recovery is not strong yet, the long-standing structural contradictions are still highlighted, and some new developments have emerged. The situation is new. In the next step, we must continue to consolidate the foundation of "stability", accumulate the strength of "progress", keep the bottom line of "guarantee", maintain the continuity, stability and sustainability of macroeconomic policies, deepen reform and opening up and innovation, and keep the economy operating within a reasonable range. Promote high-quality economic development.
This week, rubber is expected to continue to oscillate on the 13000 line, and it will be more difficult to break upward. However, besides the spot price support near 13000, there is still some other support. It is expected that there will be no cliff-like downward situation, and maintain the range shock operation.